Sunny Saturday, Warmer Sunday

7:43 AM, Apr 6, 2013   |    comments
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Sometimes I feel like my co-workers are rooting against me.

Let me explain: This morning at around 5 AM a pretty good snow shower parked itself over Portland....I did not forecast said snow shower. So, my producer Kait and co-anchor Jackie look out the window, and, with a giddiness generally reserved for 6 year olds on Christmas morning, yell "Hey Keithhhhhh, it's snowwwwingggg!!" They even made plans to take our tower camera to start the show so the whole state could see my mistake. They were BITTERLY disappointed when it stopped snowing just before show time.

I can feel the love, Lion King style.

Today: After the random snow showers died out, a big ridge of high pressure built in from the west. The result will be total sunshine for the rest of the day. That sounds nice and all but temperatures will struggle to break 40 F in most spots, topping out in the upper 30s. In addition to the cool temperatures (and actually the reason for the cold air), there will be a strong northwest wind of 30-35 MPH through much of the day. The combination of the two will leave it LOOKING really nice, but feeling more like late winter.

Tonight: We will start the evening with clear skies, allowing temperatures to fall in a hurry early on. But clouds will increase from the west after midnight with an approaching warm front. This front could touch off a flurry in the mountains by early morning (maybe I'm just sensitive after FlurryGate 2013). Lows will ultimately end up in the teens to the north, mid 20s elsewhere.

Sunday: With the warm front to our north but the trailing cold front yet to arrive, Sunday will be a mixed bag of a day. There should be a good deal of cloud cover due to the proximity of those two boundaries BUT I don't see a ton of atmospheric forcing for shower activity. So, I'm going to call it mostly cloudy with the chance for an isolated sprinkle. The best chance of catching a shower will come in the afternoon. The best news is that it will be warmer than Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s...maybe even warmer over far southern Maine if we can get a few breaks of sunshine.

Monday: After some Sunday evening showers clouds will decrease fairly rapidly during the morning hours on Monday. By late morning it will be mostly sunny and the sunshine will continue into the afternoon. Temperatures will get a nice spike as soon as the clouds break, ending up in the mid to upper 50s over southern Maine, low 50s to the north.

The focus of the rest of the week will be the exact location of a sharp warm front draped across the Northeast. The bottom line is that to the south of the warm front temperatures will be in the 70s, to the north of the front it will stay in the 40s.

On Tuesday the front will push through Maine, triggering showers and a cloudy day.

By Wednesday the front will stall somewhere across Maine, dividing the state into two distinct temperature zones. Very hard to say where this divide will be but I'm willing to bet the warm area doesn't get past Lewiston.

Thursday is one of the most "up for grabs" days I've seen in my years forecasting (7 years thank you very much). One computer model has the warm front to our north putting us in a VERY mild airmass. The other model has the front stalled down across southern New England, keeping us on the cool, Canadian influenced air. How bad is it? The two temperature forecasts for Thursday are: EURO-48 F, GFS- 73 F. (#ihatemylife).

My gut is that  most of the state will end up on the cool side with southern Maine (south of Freeport) having a SHOT at getting into that 60-70 F air. To be honest though, I'm not positive. These boundaries are relatively small scale and seem to have a really hard time pushing north of Portsmouth in the spring (something about a bridge being out because a ship hit it...), so I wouldn't lock in 70s even down across York County just yet.

I'll keep you updated on this warm front forecast. And if I'm wrong, make sure you tell my co-workers so they can maximize their harassment.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH





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