Clouds Increase, Nor'easter just misses

8:50 AM, Feb 2, 2013   |    comments
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Did you find yourself reading the weekend morning weather report over the past few months thinking, "Man, this article is far too concise, clear and relevant to the forecast"? Well you are in luck, I'm back on the weekend morning's and ready to spin my usual web of pop culture, self deprecating humor with a tiny-itty-bitty spot of weather.

Today: Mostly sunny skies will dominate through around 1 PM statewide, making for a pleasant start to the weekend. Temperatures are cold, with most areas in the low to mid teens at this point, and day time highs will likely stay below 30 F despite the plentiful sun. By the afternoon clouds will increase from west to east in response to an upper level disturbance exiting the Great Lakes. There will be enough moisture over western Maine and the mountains to produce some light snow and snow squall activity there...the rest of us will just see a turn to more "milky" skies by late afternoon.

Tonight: A transfer of energy will occur overnight between the upper level disturbance to our west and a developing coastal low pressure system offshore. Typically in a transfer of this nature there is a good deal of snow shower activity "in between" the two lows so I'm calling for widespread snow shower activity with a band of consistent snow developing close to midnight (It's close to middnigghhhhhtt and something evil's lurking in the darkkk) over the northern Midcoast and into Downeast. Those locations could actually see some accumulation by early morning, the rest of us are looking at a coating to an inch if we get hit by a snow shower.

Sunday: The transfer of energy will be complete by mid morning on Sunday so there will be a growing Nor'easter lurking off to our east. HOWEVER, I continue to feel our pattern is too progressive to spin this storm back into the state and produce widespread snowfall. Instead it will be offshore just far enough bringing mostly cloudy conditions to the coastline with scattered snow showers, especially in the afternoon. The farther west you head, the more sunshine you are likely to see as the cloud deck from the Nor'easter thins out. High temperatures will be seasonable, upper 20s to low 30s.

The Nor'easter will make it's closest pass to us on Sunday night. I'm not going to lie to you, it's REALLY close (like 50 miles further west and we are in trouble) but I'm trusting the large scale pattern here despite a track that should make me nervous. As I mentioned before the pattern is fast moving and won't allow the storm to recurve enough, if we were a BIT more "troughed out' I'd be more concerned.

With all that said, some light snow is likely along the coast through Sunday evening, tapering off about 50 miles inland. The impact will be minimal overall with a dusting to 2" likely to fall. From the northern Midcoast north to Downeast, however, the snow will be a bit more significant, coming down at a moderate clip at times. Total accumulation there will be in the 2-5" range and even 4-8" near the border. (I've made a map if you want to check it out, it's real purdy.

Snow tapers off over Downeast on Monday morning and gives way to a bright but very windy day. With a strong northwest wind I expect the windchill to be a real factor through Monday evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday look colder than average with a mixture of sun and clouds.

Our next chance of a statewide snow storm won't arrive until Friday. At this point I don't LOVE the setup for that storm either based on the big picture pattern, but there's still plenty of time for things to shift around.

Ok, I'm out of here.

Twitter: @KeithCarsonWCSH



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