Friday Sandy Update

10:28 AM, Oct 26, 2012   |    comments
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In yesterday's analysis of Sandy (read HERE if you want to catch up) I presented two different options for this storm. Option 1: A Midatlantic landfall and a lesser hit for Maine. Option 2: Hybrid-mega storm worthy of the Perfect Storm II title.

I chose Option 1 yesterday morning, and I'm sticking with it today.

The latest computer models have snapped into alignment with the European, which had the hard left hand turn into New Jersey as of yesterday morning. (I'm telling you the Euro model SMOKES the others in the mid range every time. It's almost boring how predictable it is).

Now if you turn on the Weather Channel, or any other national media outlet, you will notice that the official National Hurricane Center track has Sandy WAY south of us, making landfall closer to Washington, D.C. If this scenario were to verify we'd be looking at a pretty weak impact in Maine. It would be rainy, and a bit windy, but nothing to get too worried about.

HOWEVER, I say not so fast with this very southern track. The weather world has jumped on the European model bandwagon at this point and is now taking its output as straight gospel. This is a very bad thing.

It's hard to explain, but I've noticed a trend when watching Nor'easters and Tropical system tracks for 5 or more days...there's a pattern: 1) There is a big difference in the track early on, so you have to choose which model you believe. This happened yesterday when I had to choose the Euro over the GFS Perfect Storm II solution. 2) One model snaps into alignment with the other. As I mentioned it's most often the Euro leading the way and the others following...this phase happened yesterday afternoon with Sandy. 3) This is where it gets interesting for us. I've noticed almost EVERY time after the other models jump on board the Euro train there is a correction BACK to the original "wrong" track at least a little within the 3 day time frame. SO many times the Euro has had Nor'easters going west when the others have been out sea...they eventually snap into a more westward track, only to have the actual path be somewhere in the middle.

So that's a long way of telling you I'm going for a New York City area landfall of Sandy.

What does that mean for Maine? A pretty good storm still but not the storm of the century.

The timing is such that rain will begin late Monday and winds will pick up steadily overnight Monday. By Tuesday morning winds will be in the 50 MPH range over southern Maine and more like 40 MPH over the Midcoast and Downeast.

As the storm continues to spin and curl across the Midatlantic it will stay windy and wet through Wednesday before MAYBE clearing on Thursday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts aren't huge. Sure, it'll rain but I don't see 3-4" like was on the table yesterday. More likely we end up with 1-2" of rain with some locally heavier amounts.

That's my current feeling on the storm. I can't TOTALLY take a stronger solution off the table yet, but as we get closer I feel confident that the Perfect Storm II is not in our immediate future.

As usual, stay with us through the day and the weekend. I'm not done watching this bad boy.

Twitter: @KeithcarsonWCSH

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