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Quiet Tuesday, Light Snow Wednesday, Friday Storm?

2:44 PM, Feb 4, 2013   |    comments
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Most of the state is running only a little below average for snowfall this season (Portland is -0.7"), but I have to agree with the angry emails from snowmobilers/skiers/boarders that it's seemed like a bust of a winter. I thought long and hard about this last night while Joe Flacco took a nap on the turf of the suddenly dark Superdome, and determined why the perception doesn't match the reality: Sure we've HAD a decent amount of snow, but we've torched it away with a warmup within a week almost every time.

Looking at the mid range models I have to wonder if that pattern will repeat itself in the next 10 days. We have a chance at some snow on Wednesday and again on Friday, but it looks like furnace at all levels by mid next week...melty, melty.

Rest of Today: A mixture of sun and clouds for most of us with the most sunshine along the coastline and the most cloud cover in the mountains. Strong west winds are adding quite a bite to the otherwise seasonable temperatures and winds will continue to gust up to 35 MPH through the afternoon.

Tonight: Winds slacken a bit as the coastal bomb that missed us yesterday continues to pull away to the northeast. Still, it will be breezy considering how cold temperatures will dip. Look for lows in the single digits even along the coastline with readings as low as -10 F in the mountains. The resulting windchill will hit -30 F in spots. As far as sky conditions; it will be partly cloudy.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny for the vast majority of the state but look for some more cloud cover down towards York and Cumberland counties as a weak storm system misses to the south. Still, it will be a dry and cool day with highs in the upper teens to low 20s.

A weak little "clipper" type system will roll through on Wednesday providing some periods of light snow. As per usual with storms that emerge from our northwest, it will be moisture starved and lacking energy. Look for periods of light snow off and on through the day with total accumulation in the 1-2" range for most of us, maybe 2-4" in the mountains where the higher terrain acts to squeeze out all the avaialble moisture from the clouds.

After a sunny and quiet Thursday attention will turn to the possibility for a Friday afternoon/evening Nor'easter.

Since it's been so quiet lately, the possibility of this storm started buzzing around the weather weenie circuits (they are underground and exclusive, trust me) on Saturday morning. As it stands, the EURO model has a bomb of a Nor'easter up in our face Friday night that would result in heavy snow, possibility the heaviest of the season. MEANWHILE, the GFS model is Yawnfest 2013...baggy little low with 1-3" potential.

Now if you know me, you know I love the European model (#Takeitoutofcontext) in the 4-7 day range. Love it. It usually smokes the competition (see Sandy) to the point it's boring. HOWEVER, I'm not so sure about this one. My problem is how perfect everything has to be to get a big Nor'easter into Maine in our current pattern. We are dominated by the weaker polar jet stream and a big storm requires "phasing" of the polar jet and the subtropical jet at exactly the right place and time. Is it impossible? Certainly not, but the GFS solution..which has basically no phasing at all...has been the trend of this winter so far.

So, what am I saying? Well really I'm saying it's too early to call but my gut says this isn't the superstorm the EURO is trying to sell. Stick with us as we get closer.

Twitter: I'll be watching the models intently over the next few days and tweets shall follow: @KeithCarsonWCSH

 

 

 

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